Thursday, September 25, 2008

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When price penetrates a pivot number, it often retraces back to the pivot, and touches it

briefly. If it was support that was penetrated, and it does not move back up above it, but

continues to hover just below it, there is about to be a drop in price. At the point that it

retraces after dropping below support, enter a sell with a modest stop loss somewhere on

the other side of the broken support line. Notice the illustration below of the USD/JPY at

2 am EST. The price had just broken below the S2 number, which was 123.38. It briefly

touched the 123.38 to 123.41 area and then began to descend. As you can see, it moved

down all through the European and US market sessions.

This USD/JPY trade exhibits a problem sometimes encountered. Price either moves

higher than the R2 or lower than the S2 number. At that point, it is best to re-calculate

the numbers, or monitor the trade based on its relationship to weekly pivot numbers.


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The currency (foreign exchange) market is the largest and oldest financial market in the

world. It is also called the foreign exchange market, or "FOREX" or "FX" market for

short. It is the biggest and most liquid market in the world, and it is traded mainly

through the 24 hour-a-day inter-bank currency market - the primary market for

currencies. The forex market is a cash (or "spot") inter-bank market. By comparison, the

currency futures market is only one per cent as big.

Foreign Exchange simply means the buying of one currency and selling another at the

same time. In other words, the currency of one country is exchanged for those of

another. The currencies of the world are on a floating exchange rate, and are always

traded in pairs - Euro/Dollar, Dollar/Yen, etc. In excess of 85 percent of all daily

transactions involve trading of the major currencies - Australian Dollar, British Pound,

Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the U.S. Dollar.

Unlike the futures and stock markets, trading of currencies is not centralized on an

exchange. Forex literally follows the sun around the world. Trading moves from major

banking centres of the U.S. to Australia and New Zealand, to the Far East, to Europe and

finally back to the U.S.

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In the past, the forex inter-bank market was not available to small speculators due to the

large minimum transaction sizes and often-stringent financial requirements. Banks,

major currency dealers and the occasional huge speculator used to be the principal

dealers. Only they were able to take advantage of the currency market's fantastic

liquidity and strong trending nature of many of the world's primary currency exchange

rates.

Today, foreign exchange market maker brokers such as FX Solutions are able to break

down the larger sized inter-bank units, and offer small traders the opportunity to buy or

sell any number of these smaller units (lots). These brokers give virtually any size trader,

including individual speculators or smaller companies, the option to trade the same rates

and price movements as the large players who once dominated the market. Market

makers quote buying and selling rates for currencies, and they profit on the difference

between their buying and selling rates.


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Large returns

􀂾 Currencies trend well.

􀂾 There are no commissions.

􀂾 US$6 trillion a day and growing

􀂾 The forex is a very efficient market.

􀂾 High leverage: Each pip is worth US$10

􀂾 There is lots of movement in this market.

􀂾 You can trade 24X5 from home or anywhere.

􀂾 Little capital is required – as little as US$500.

􀂾 You can easily start out by taking 20 pips a day.

􀂾 You can trade whether you have a day job or not.

􀂾 You can hedge at FX Solutions. Not all market makers allow this.

􀂾 All you need is an Internet connection; charting/dealing software is free.

􀂾 This is real-time trading; 2.5 to four second response time; rare re-quotes.

􀂾 Low lot size: 100 to one ratio; US$100 controls US$10,000 (1,000 = 100,000)


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The ideal market for trading …

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People think that life is a linear progression, which you go from A to B to C and so on.

In fact, it’s a total illusion, because anyone who thinks carefully about his/her own life

knows that the pattern of his past is absolutely accidental and serendipitous. The key

challenge in life is not to know where you are going, but prepare your character so when

those wonderful moments of serendipity occur, you can listen to your heart and know

what it is you need to do. Trading the forex is just another serendipitous moment in the

course of your life. You will either embrace the opportunity or let it go. By the time you

have finished reading this e-book, we believe you will not let this opportunity pass you

by.

If you really wanted to learn how to trade the forex successfully, where would you go?

Who would mentor you? Who would teach you? Who would show you how to take

advantage of the market, instead of the other way around - the market taking advantage

of you? If you could get there on your own, you'd already be there. We’re here to help

you conquer the magnificent world of forex trading.

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Such an implicit learning perspective helps to make sense of Schwager’s findings. There are many ways of becoming immersed in the markets: through research, observation of charts, tape reading, etc. The specific activity is less important than the immersion. We become experts in trading in the same way that subjects learned Reber’s artificial grammars. We see enough examples under sufficient conditions of attention and concentration that we become able to intuit the underlying patterns. In an important sense, we learn to feel our market knowledge before we become able to verbalize it. While simply “going with your feelings” is generally a recipe for trading disaster, I believe it is also the case that our emotions and “gut” feelings can be important sources of market information.

The reason for this is tied up in the neurobiology of the brain. In his excellent text The Executive Brain: Frontal Lobes and the Civilized Mind, New York University’s Elkhonon Goldberg summarizes evidence that suggests a division of labor for the hemispheres of our brains. Our right, nonverbal hemispheres become activated when we encounter novel stimuli and information. Our left, verbal hemispheres are more active in processing routine knowledge and situations. When we first encounter new situations, as in the markets, we tend to process the information non-verbally—which means implicitly. Only when we have made these patterns highly familiar will there be a transfer to left hemisphere processing and an ability to capture, in words, some of the complexity of one’s understandings. As we know from studies of regional cerebral blood flow, the right hemisphere is also activated under emotional conditions. It is not surprising that our awareness of novel patterns, whether in artificial grammars or in markets, would appear as felt tendencies rather than as verbalized rules.

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The second major answer to the question of trading expertise is that of pattern recognition. The markets display patterns that repeat over time, across various time-scales. Traders gain expertise by acquiring information about these patterns and then learning to recognize the patterns for themselves. An analogy would be a medical student learning to diagnose a disease, such as pneumonia. Each disease is defined by a discrete set of signs and symptoms. By running appropriate tests and making proper observations of the patient, the medical student can gather the information needed to recognize pneumonia. Becoming an expert doctor requires seeing many patients and gaining practice in putting the pieces of information together rapidly and accurately.

The clearest example of gaining trading expertise through pattern recognition is the large literature on technical analysis. Most technical analysis books are like the books carried by medical students. They attempt to group market “signs” and “symptoms” into identifiable patterns that help the trader “diagnose” the market. Some of the patterns may be chart patterns; others may be based upon the identification of cycles, configurations of oscillators, etc. Like the doctor, the technical analyst cultivates expertise by seeing many markets and learning to identify the patterns in real time. Note how the pattern recognition and research answers to the question of expertise lead to very different approaches to the training of traders. In the research perspective, traders learn to improve their trading by conducting better research. This means learning to use more sophisticated tools, gather more data, uncover better predictors, etc. From a pattern recognition vantage point, however, trading success will not come from performing more research. Rather, direct instruction from experts and massed practice leads to the development of competence (again like medical school, where the dictum is “See one, do one, teach one”).

Another way of stating this is that the research viewpoint treats trading as a science. We gain knowledge by uncovering new observations and patterns. The pattern recognition perspective treats trading as a performance activity.

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